The application of RFID technology also needs to be tested for a long time. From this perspective, the new retail will not cause too much impact on the employment.

Hawking warns that artificial intelligence and growing automation will largely replace the work of the middle class, leading to more inequality in society and possibly serious political turmoil. To some extent, this is destructive innovation, and the impact is inevitable.

Every time a disruptive technology is applied to industrial manufacturing or production, the question of whether the technology will cause a lot of unemployment will follow. Although the manufacturing sector has tried to solve this problem to the fullest extent, what about the retail industry? Are robots and the Internet of Things pushing retailers to the risk of losing their jobs?

It is undeniable that the rapid development of technology has increased the pressure of survival in traditional industries. For example, in the past few years, aircraft and third-party delivery methods have made breakthroughs in online retail delivery speed and reach. Entity retailers are under pressure to attract a basic customer base and are also taking on high pressures to increase efficiency and increase competitiveness.

According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the number of retail employees will increase by 7% in the next ten years until 2024, which is undoubtedly a favorable information for 4.8 million retailers in the United States. However, it is difficult for the Bureau of Statistics to predict the specific impact of disruptive technologies such as the Internet of Things, artificial intelligence and robots on the industry. Almost no one can guarantee that they are not within the scope of the impact.

A new generation of retail technology achievements

Ma Yun predicted that the key point of the “new retail” model is in the service sector, while Amazon’s approach is more radical and indeed accompanied by the risk of employee unemployment.

As the superstar of the US online retail industry, Amazon's new retail method is to reduce the cash-taking steps in the shopping process by establishing a “black technology” physical store. As you can see from the published video, the Amazon Go store that will be established in Seattle, customers can enter the selection and take it directly. The only thing that needs to be done is to log in to the Amazon Go app, and the Amazon account will be when the customer leaves the store. proceed to checkout.

This shopping process benefits from emerging technologies, including computer vision, sensor fusion and deep learning, which are used in stores to track customer actions and what they take away.

After the consumer chooses a good product, he can go straight out and go outside. Because the real-time updated shopping list has already counted the amount of this purchase before they left Amazon Go, and automatically deducted the corresponding fee in the account.

In fact, this kind of store has many benefits for consumers and retail employees. Consumers who don't want to interact with store employees can rush in and then rush out in a matter of minutes instead of waiting in line. For stores, staff can spend more time focusing on providing better customer service than on cashier.

In addition to the Amazon Go model, technicians have predicted that technologies like RFID (radio frequency identification) can identify shoppers full of merchandise in the next decade to bypass the cashier line. Some stores, including Kroger, are already testing technical experiments that can speed up the cashier process, using a 360-degree barcode scanner to automate the process.

In fact, smart shopping carts with location-awareness and RFID coordination are already being tested and show great hope for success. The smart shopping cart has a tablet-like interface that allows consumers who are shopping to receive targeted advertising promotions to guide their purchases, or to introduce information about nearby products. It can even track the shopping habits of specific customers and provide specific products. The direction.

Although Amazon Go will undoubtedly reduce Amazon's demand for retail employees, in fact, this mode of directly omitting the cash register process is unrealistic to be widely used, and the application of RFID technology also needs to be tested for a long time. From this perspective In terms of new retail, there is currently no major impact on wage labor.

More importantly, this technology is essentially not a substitute for the staff. It only enhances the customer's shopping experience to a certain extent. In the end, it complements the consumer service provided by retail employees. And it can also increase employee income in a disguised manner through new types of advertising promotions and increased sales.

New retail systems face challenges, not as easy as imagined

Soon, large supermarkets and food stores in the United States will start using a self-paid checkout retail system, which allows customers to scan, package, and operate their own purchases. It also allows a staff member to supervise 6, 10 or more. Multiple cashier lines are possible, which of course means fewer cashiers will be needed.

But Will Reynolds, a member of the American Chamber of Commerce, said that the self-checkout system is actually slower and less effective, although people will have a quicker and more convenient misunderstanding.

This is because the system is easily deceived, so a supervisor can only monitor three cashier lines at the same time, or even less, and is not as efficient as imagined.

And a major challenge for this retail system is the increased chance of a theft.

Self-paying the scanner when measuring the weight of the item may be blinded by some embarrassing customers, which means that the necessary number of cashiers are still needed to ensure that the goods are accurately checked out and recorded in the computer. Many people also believe that although the cashier is replaced by a robot, it still needs a person standing at the door to check and supervise the payment.

But what is more serious is actually the increase in the frequency of crime. More than 200 crimes committed in 4,500 Wal-Mart stores in the United States involved violent crimes, including burglary, wounding, murder and attempt to abduct kidnapping. Last year alone, the police went to the supermarket and three other local Wal-Mart supermarkets. Almost 2,000 times.

The lack of service staff and the increase in self-paid checkout retail systems are the main causes of frequent theft and other criminal acts. The National Police Bureau even said that Wal-Mart is already a "hotbed of criminals." In view of the risk of reducing the facts of crime, service personnel are still required by retail stores.

In addition to the challenge of customer credit checkout, we have seen how it is to shop in a noisy retail store, such as Black Friday every year. Is it true that even the most advanced camera and scanning systems in an overcrowded store can accurately track merchandise? Of course RFID is the most viable solution, but it will take time.

Like most technologies, the more secure this system becomes, the more insecure it is. Some people will use their cleverness to find new technology vulnerabilities, so it is difficult to solve these potential risks by simply relying on automated equipment.

Even if there is a causal relationship between automation and unemployment, there are some exceptions to the retail industry.

In the manufacturing industry, especially in the automotive industry, when automation has become commonplace in equipment throughout the field, hiring manpower has experienced a major impact. However, the online retailer's warehouse work is a different exception.

The robot has already started a recurring work in Amazon's large-scale warehouses. The goods on the cargo racks are delivered to the corresponding staff. They have to go through the steps of selecting and packaging for the freight.

However, the robotic army did not hinder Amazon's demand for hired workers. On the contrary, Amazon's labor employment increased by 47% in one year, especially the logistics center accounted for the majority of the growth.

Looking back at PC World in 2012, Amazon has enabled employees who are currently working in warehouse jobs that do not require skills to become more suitable for higher-level jobs through vocational training. This also includes some work skills that are not directly related to Amazon, such as nursing.

Although the interrelationship between the advancement of automation equipment and the decline in jobs in the US manufacturing industry has always been the subject of economists' debate, it is undeniable that companies in every industry are actually pursuing a reduction in labor costs while improving efficiency. .

However, for retail employees, robots, as a substitute for some face-to-face customers, are undergoing tests, but they are unlikely to become mainstream in a short time. Habits are often ingrained, so every upgrade or change in the shopping experience will have some degree of friction, and it is very difficult to change itself.

In general, if change means that people must learn to use the new system, they will not like this change unless efficiency is increased with a large degree of consumption convenience. Maybe the customer may take a long time to accept a robot walking around in front of them and asking if they need help.

Amazon Go's model is extremely interesting. If successful, it will be a strong proof that this technology can be approved or applied by other retail stores. This model does not apply to large shopping malls or very large grocery stores. Just a test at a small retail store in the corner of Seattle. Some media claim that 2,000 Amazon Go are in the preparation stage, but Amazon has repeatedly stressed that this free checkout test can only be carried out in small retail stores other than large physical stores.

Technological innovation is inevitable to change the status quo of the retail industry. However, the idea that stores are completely supported by IoT technology and robots is still somewhat far-fetched. Many retail stores also need employees to assist customers in using new technologies. The fully automated imagination of human management is only stuck in science fiction.

Clayton Christensen mentioned in the "Innovator's Dilemma" that destructive technology tends to grow faster than users' demand. The new retail era is only guided by technological innovation. To achieve development, it is inevitable that consumer demand will be promoted. However, this process will inevitably be quite long, and the impact on the labor force will be step by step. It is better to say that it is disappearing than disappearing.

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