After the fierce market competition in 2014-2015, after the carrier subsidy model “collapsed”, the domestic mobile phone market pattern finally became clear. According to the latest data released by market research firm Sino, the top ten domestic shipments of Chinese smartphone companies in 2015 were: Huawei (13.6%), Apple (11%), Xiaomi (10%), and Samsung (7.7%). , OPPO (7.4%), vivo (7.3%), Lenovo (6.9%), Meizu (4.3%), Cool (4.3%), and Jin Li (2.6%).

From the data point of view, there are several trends that are very obvious:

1. International brand: Samsung dive, Apple grows against the trend. Compared with the 2013 Q2 Analysys International data, Samsung's market share dropped from 18.2% to 7.7%, and Apple climbed from 3.9% to 11%. Other international brands such as Nokia, SONY, and LG suffered a fiasco in the Chinese market.

From the trend point of view, Samsung's share will continue to decline in 2016, according to Samsung insiders, "the trend has not yet fallen to the bottom", Apple is expected in 2016 with the launch of a new generation of iPhone can be "stable in the current market share" ", while other international brands have basically lost opportunities in the Chinese market.

2. The traditional “China Cool Alliance” is not here today. In Q2 2013, the traditional top four “Chinese Cool Alliance” in domestic mobile phones accounted for 34.9% of the domestic market share, accounting for more than 1/3.

In addition to Huawei's climb to 13.6%, the share of Lenovo and Coolpad in the transition has dropped to seven, and ZTE has fallen out of the top 10. The overall market share of “Huaweiwei” has reached 38.8%. The proportion is close to 40%, and the new domestic brand's top four pattern has been established.

3. The market concentration is further improved. The top 10 companies in Q2 in 2013 had an overall market share of 72.5% and have now increased to 75.5%. It is worth noting that, unlike the top 10 in 2013, the ranking is different. Today, the ranking is from the fourth-ranked Samsung (7.7%) to the seventh-ranked Lenovo (6.9%). In fact, the shares are very close, indicating that the market is concentrated. The degree will be further improved. In 2016, the competition of major brands in the domestic mobile phone market will be even more fierce.

4. Huawei's millet market is “watershed”. The competition for domestic market share in 2015 was actually mainly the dispute between Huawei and Xiaomi. However, in fact, in addition to the different calculation methods of various market research companies in the first two quarters, the domestic shipments of the two companies actually did not differ much. However, from the end of the second quarter to the third quarter, Xiaomi’s model represented by Red Rice Note showed a large inventory backlog in China, which led to Xiaomi’s busy handling of inventory problems in the Double 11 and even deliberately delayed the Red Rice Note 3. Rise Time.

Judging from the shipment of 53.2 million units in the first three quarters of Xiaomi, it is difficult to complete the shipment target of 80 million to 100 million units during the year (meaning that at least 26.8 million units will be shipped in the fourth quarter). Lei Jun recently did not mention this number when interviewed by The Wall Street Journal at the 2015 World Internet Conference. Instead, he said that "this goal is not our number one priority, and we are most concerned about user satisfaction." ”

In contrast, Huawei's annual shipments of Huawei mobile phones will exceed 100 million units in the year of glory shipments exceeding 40 million “assistant”. In the Chinese market, glory relied on the product benchmark to suppress the Xiaomi hot-selling product line at a price below 2,000 yuan, while the Huawei brand took the opportunity to seize and hold the price of 3000-4000 yuan.

This year's double 11, Xiaomi, relying on Xiaomi.com's full backflow + the last three hours to send discount coupons, won the sales first, but Huawei + glory Tmall sales are only more than 70 million yuan, but the mobile phone product customer price is more than nearly 500 Yuan, the contrast is very obvious. Double 12, glory is to get the Tmall platform mobile phone category 1499-1799 price segment sales and sales double champion; Jingdong platform mobile phone 700-1000, 1500-3000 price segment sales first. If this trend continues to widen, the impact of glory on Xiaomi in the two thousand yuan and 2000 yuan in 2016 will be even greater.

The pattern is coming

After the market reshuffle in the 2014-2015 market, almost all mobile phone companies realized that the market in 2016 was cruel. Who can survive in the fiercest market competition, there will be opportunities in the future, and those who can go against the trend will become the main players in the new era, and there will be several major market variables:

1. Scale. Unlike the feature phone market, the mobile Internet has developed to the present day, and major hardware and mobile phone companies are also committed to transformation for many years. Behind every smartphone is a valuable entry point for a variety of mobile applications and Internet finance. In other words, for giant companies, scale and users are the wealth that must be worked hard. From this perspective, it is a pity that the hardware companies that have fallen behind in the battle of the pattern.

2. Profit and brand. In the current global economic situation, the "burning money" model is not expected to last long, especially in the mobile phone industry, which relies on hardware scale and manufacturing. From the point of view of 2015, the highest profits of domestic mobile phone brands are Huawei, vivo and OPPO. Among them, vivo and OPPO have made huge profits and brands by relying on the lucrative offline channels and the heavy hits in the TV series. Huawei is relying on the rapid improvement of its product strength, as well as the success of its overall operation with glory online and online channels. It has also achieved both profit and brand growth.

The war of shuffling means price war, and who can go further in the fiercely competitive market, the final test is the brand premium ability and profitability, rather than the hardware price war supported by losses and subsidies.

3. Channels. In fact, there has never been a simple "Internet mobile phone brand". Today, operators, offline public markets, e-commerce channels and mutual integration, only relying on a single channel to survive can only survive in the business story. Even in Xiaomi, about 70% of its shipments in 2015 were also completed by offline and operators. For example, China Mobile Terminal Corporation is Xiaomi's current largest operator + offline channel distributor.

However, for enterprises other than Apple, which has strong control over prices and products, other Android mobile phone brands have problems with channel and goods brought back by online and offline products. The domestic mobile phone brand is even more difficult to complete the single brand coverage of the 400-4000 yuan product line. Therefore, most domestic mobile phone companies have adopted sub-brand operations, but the test behind them is the overall business operation, internal resource coordination and the ability of the two teams to compete and match.

At present, only Huawei and glory can be said to succeed. For example, Xiaomi is not obvious because of its red rice series and the main brand. There is no clear division within the team. In the red rice series, the shipments account for more than 80% of the shares, and after the offline coverage, the millet brand is above 2000 yuan. The product trader was obviously blocked.

4. Overseas markets. After the growth of the smartphone market in China has reached the ceiling, the overseas market has become a new space for domestic mobile phone brands to continue to pursue scale and profit. But no matter how many "new recruits", they will encounter the old "tiger" of "patents." At present, domestic brands with better patent problems in overseas markets include: Huawei, ZTE, TCL and Lenovo. The former two mainly rely on independent research and development for many years, while the latter two mainly rely on overseas acquisitions.

Compared with the above four companies, other domestic mobile phone brands can only be placed in Southeast Asia, Africa and other countries where the patent requirements are not critical, and emerging markets such as India and Brazil are currently difficult to enter. The important highlights of the international mobile phone market in 2016 are how Huawei, ZTE, TCL (Alcatel), and Lenovo (Moto) have expanded in the global market and how glory officially entered the US market. Once these well-established Chinese mobile phone companies have successfully copied domestic gameplay to overseas markets, not only will they have a global impact on international brands such as Samsung and LG, but they will also form a higher market for domestic mobile phone brands such as Xiaomi. threshold.

Based on the above analysis, 2016 will be the decisive battle for the domestic pattern of domestic mobile phone brands, and the beginning of the overseas market to truly launch the "wolf" of the group of international brands such as Samsung. In this sense, after the battle, the global mobile phone market will usher in 1-3 Chinese players with a double market share, and Chinese mobile phone companies can establish a true industry position in the global market.

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