In 2015, the domestic mobile communication market will fully enter the 4G era.
2014 is the first year of commercialization of China's 4G business. In just one year, both 4G network construction and user development have made significant progress. In particular, China Mobile has achieved remarkable results in the deployment and promotion of TD-LTE. According to China Mobile's data, by October 2014, China Mobile built a total of 570,000 4G base stations, covering more than 300 cities, with a population coverage rate of 75%. Taking into account the size of the country, the size of the network and the frequency bands used, this achievement is not easy and exceeds the performance of international counterparts (see Table 1). In terms of user development, by October of this year, the number of 4G users of China Mobile has exceeded 50 million, achieving the development goal in advance. At the same time, the number of 3G users began to show a monthly net decrease, which also indicates that China Mobile will quickly cross the 3G phase and begin a full transition to 4G. The rapid development of TD-LTE in China also proves that the open competition of the industrial ecology and the full cooperation of domestic and foreign industry is an important guarantee for the successful entry of new technologies into the market.

As of this month, China Telecom and China Unicom have also been approved to conduct mixed networking experiments of LTE FDD and TDD in 56 cities. It is widely expected in the industry that China Telecom and China Unicom will fully launch the network deployment of LTE FDD in 2015, thus enabling China's 4G market to enter a full-scale competition era and promote the further maturity of the 4G market. Strategy AnalyTIcs predicts that by the end of 2015, China's 4G LTE users will exceed 260 million, and the market penetration rate will exceed 18%. 4G will become the main theme of China's mobile communications market, creating new opportunities for market development.
Open and cooperate to create a traffic management system The introduction of 4G will greatly stimulate traffic consumption. In 4G advanced markets such as the US, Japan and Korea, the monthly average traffic consumption (DOU) of 4G users has increased significantly compared to 3G users. As China's 3G market starts late, 4G's pull on traffic consumption is even more obvious. China Mobile's data shows that its 4G users have a DOU that is six times the user average. Such a high growth rate not only means a huge opportunity for traffic management, but also shows that the cultivation of user traffic consumption habits in China is still insufficient, and the average level of traffic consumption is still low.

According to Strategy AnalyTIcs, in advanced markets such as the US and Japan, user DOUs have reached the order of 1.5GB to 2GB. This figure is not only far higher than the average level of the Chinese market, but even far higher than the current level of traffic consumption of 4G users in China. It can be seen that there is still a lot of room for improvement in the traffic consumption level of mobile communication users in China.
In this case, on the one hand, operators need to adopt a more flexible tariff strategy to further guide and cultivate users' traffic consumption habits. On the other hand, operators also need to strengthen cooperation with all parties in the industry chain to stimulate user traffic consumption with innovative business models. In 2014, the three major operators launched the 4G tariff plan, introducing new tariff models such as traffic sharing and personalized customization, laying the foundation for promoting 4G traffic consumption. At the same time, the three major operators and emerging virtual operators have also launched the exploration of new traffic management models.
Among these new models, the more common one is the directional traffic model. Operators cooperate with Internet companies to enable users to access specific websites and services at preferential prices or for free, forming a so-called “flow 800” service. Further, some basic operators and virtual operators have introduced the concept of a traffic trading platform such as “traffic bank” and “traffic store”, so that traffic can be bought and sold between users and users, and between enterprises and users. Users can participate in corporate promotion activities on the traffic platform to earn traffic for free. In the future, these platforms may also support the exchange of third-party points and traffic, and provide services such as big data analytics for enterprise customers. The exploration of these traffic management models may give operators the opportunity to construct a traffic management ecosystem that connects enterprises and end users and communicates online and offline channels.
In order to achieve this goal, operators need to ensure the full openness of the traffic trading platform, and actively cooperate with corporate customers in all walks of life, especially small and medium-sized enterprises and traditional industries. These companies often do not have the ability to build their own online and offline integrated ecosystem, and the operator's traffic trading platform can provide the required platform, technology and services. In this process, operators also need to strengthen cooperation with each other. The fragmentation of traffic transactions and big data analysis systems will not be conducive to the construction and promotion of new traffic management systems, and will eventually delay the transformation process of all operators, so operators More positive thinking and exploration of competition and cooperation models in the digital economy environment are needed.
Further opening will help alleviate market imbalances In the past five years, China's mobile communications market has been slow and stable in a more balanced direction through competition among 3G technologies, but the launch of 4G has changed this process. In 2014, China Mobile's market share has rebounded significantly, and the domestic mobile communications market may once again turn to a single big situation.

At present, China Telecom and China Unicom have huge gaps with China Mobile in terms of user base and financial status. The start of 4G services has a time difference of about one year. Before the beginning of next year, China Telecom and China Unicom will start promoting FDD networks. In 4G business, China Mobile's 4G subscribers may have exceeded 100 million. These factors make it difficult for China Telecom and China Unicom to compete with China Mobile in the 4G market. The situation in the market will continue to intensify. In the long run, this will reduce the choice space of consumers, which is not conducive to improving the level of market competition and innovation, and is not conducive to transforming the rapid development of 4G into a substantial increase in the level of information consumption. In order to alleviate this problem and promote balanced market development, more market entities with certain strengths can be introduced to improve the overall level of competition. External funds and advanced experience can also be introduced to enhance the competitiveness of backward operators.
China's regulatory agencies have opened up mobile resale business pilots to domestic private enterprises, and issued a total of 42 resale business licenses. Some resale companies have demonstrated flexible innovation capabilities and a unique understanding of market segments. However, we must also see that the newly-received resale enterprises still lack understanding of the general rules of the telecom market, and the upstream wholesale business is still controlled by the three major state-owned operators. The pricing ability of resale enterprises is obviously insufficient. Unable to have a significant impact on the mobile communications market. International experience shows that the entry of international brands with influential and practical operational experience can play a significant role in promoting the start of the virtual operation market. On the other hand, the virtual operator and the basic operator to build a closer cooperation relationship will also have positive significance for the business performance of both parties. For example, in the UK market, although O2 only signed contracts with 14 virtual operators, it has the largest number of wholesale users (as shown below).

O2's wholesale business has benefited from its virtual operations joint venture with Tesco and Lycamobile, and its independently operated virtual operating brand GiffGaff. On the other hand, Tesco Mobile, Lycamobile and GiffGaff have also benefited from the close relationship with O2. The number of Tesco Mobile users has exceeded 5 million, making it one of the largest virtual operators in the UK market, and the number of users of Lycamobile and GiffGaff. They are also more than or close to 1 million, becoming the leader in their respective market segments.

It can be seen that establishing closer cooperation with partners and making full use of the resources, experience, channels and other advantageous resources of the partners can be an effective means for the basic operators to enhance their competitiveness. Further opening up market access and introducing partners with strong strength and new business management experience can help backward operators improve their competitive situation and promote more balanced market development.
Summary 2015 will be the year when China's 4G development enters full competition. The development of the 4G market will spawn new opportunities for information consumption, but it will also exacerbate the imbalance in the mobile communications market. In order to seize the 4G opportunities while maintaining the long-term competition level and innovation capability of the market, the competent authorities and basic operators should adopt a more open cooperation strategy, further open market access, and strengthen cooperation with domestic and foreign partners in and outside the industry. Utilize the funds and experience of partners to promote 4G development, improve the level of information consumption, and better serve all consumers.

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