The current situation of economic, energy, and power consumption in China and the United States (1) Comparison of China's total economic output with that of the United States According to the World Bank Database (WDI) data, according to the exchange rate method, China's GDP was 4.99 trillion U.S. dollars in 2009, and U.S. GDP was 14.1. Trillion US dollars, China is 35% of the United States; according to the purchasing power parity method (PPP) calculation, China's GDP in 2009 was 9.1 trillion international dollars, the United States GDP was 14.1 trillion international dollars, China is about 65% of the United States. The Chinese economy scale calculated by the exchange rate method is about 55% calculated by PPP method.
Calculated according to the exchange rate method, Chinaâ€™s per capita GDP in 2009 was US$3,744, approximately 8% of the United States, ranking 103rd in the world, while the United States ranked 12th in the world;
Calculated by PPP method, China's per capita GDP is 6828 international dollars, which is about 15% of the United States, ranking 89th in the world, and the United States is ranked 7th in the world. There is still a big gap between China's per capita GDP and the United States.
(b) Comparison of China's energy and electricity consumption with that of the United States. In 2010, Chinaâ€™s total primary energy consumption was approximately 325 million tons of standard coal, and the total primary energy consumption in the United States was approximately 3.27 billion tons of standard coal; Chinaâ€™s per capita energy consumption The amount of 2.4 tons of standard coal, the average American energy consumption of 10.7 tons of standard coal, China is about 22% of the United States. From the perspective of end-use energy consumption structure, the proportion of China's industrial energy consumption is about 70%, which is much higher than the proportion of 28% in the United States; while the proportion of U.S. transport, business and service industries and residents' living energy consumption is significantly higher than that of China.
In 2010, Chinaâ€™s total electricity consumption was 41.99 billion kwh, the United Statesâ€™ total social power consumption was 4.4009 billion kwh, and China was about 95% of the U.S.; Chinaâ€™s average electricity consumption was 3135 kwh. At 14335 kWh, China is about 22% of the United States.
Judging from the structure of electricity consumption, China is dominated by industrial electricity consumption. In 2009, Chinaâ€™s industrial, commercial, and service industries and householdsâ€™ electricity consumption accounted for 73.1%, 9.4%, and 12.5% â€‹â€‹of the total electricity consumption of the entire society. Mainly in the commercial and service industries, residential electricity consumption, accounting for the proportion of electricity consumption in the entire society was 35.4%, 36.4%, while the proportion of industrial electricity consumption was only 23.6%.
When Chinaâ€™s total economic output exceeds that of the United States, it predicts when Chinaâ€™s economic output exceeds that of the United States in the future. This mainly depends on the speed of economic development in China and the United States and the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate in the coming period. Regarding this issue, the answers given by international and domestic authorities are not the same, but the basic judgment is between 2020 and 2030 (calculated by the exchange rate method).
In order to analyze China's total economic output surpassing U.S. time, apply the research results of the National Grid Corporation's electricity supply and demand research laboratories, and refer to the relevant research results of international relevant research institutions, and set the economic growth rates of the two countries in the next 20 years and the changes in the RMB exchange rate as follows:
(I) China's economic growth According to the prediction of power supply and demand research laboratories, the Chinese economy will continue to grow at an annual average rate of 8.1% and 5.6% from 2011 to 2020 and from 2021 to 2030, respectively.
(2) U.S. economic growth comprehensively refers to the prediction results of the IEA World Energy Outlook 2010 and related research institutions in the United States. It is expected that the U.S. economy will grow at an average annual rate of 2.3% and 2.1% from 2011 to 2020 and 2021 to 2030, respectively.
(III) Change in Renminbi Exchange Rate Taking into account the continuous appreciation trend of the RMB exchange rate, the RMB exchange rate is set to rise at an average annual rate of about 3% in the next 20 years. By 2020, the exchange rate of the RMB against the U.S. dollar will be around 5.0, and in 2030 it will rise to around 3.6.
According to the above assumptions, according to the calculation of the exchange rate method, Chinaâ€™s total economic output will surpass the United States in 2022 and become the worldâ€™s largest economy. The total economic output will reach approximately 19.6 trillion US dollars, compared with US$ 18.9 trillion, according to the PPP method. China will surpass the United States in 2017 with an economic aggregate of 17.3 trillion U.S. dollars and the United States at 16.9 trillion U.S. dollars. However, China's per capita GDP is still far below that of the United States, which is about 25% of that of the United States.
The future demand for energy and electricity between China and the United States China will basically complete industrialization in the next 10 years. At this stage, energy and electricity demand will continue to grow at a relatively fast rate; after 2020, China will enter the post-industrialization stage, with energy and electricity demand. The growth rate will slow down significantly. According to the electric power supply and demand research laboratory simulation, the growth rate of China's energy consumption and total social power consumption will be 4.05% and 6.75% from 2010 to 2020, and 1.33% and 2.44% from 2020 to 2030, respectively. By 2022, China's energy consumption and total social power consumption will reach 4.97 billion tons of standard coal and 8.47 trillion kwh respectively, and per capita energy consumption will be 3.5 tons of standard coal, and per capita electricity consumption will be 5,970 kilowatt-hours. From the IEA's forecast of U.S. energy demand, the total energy demand in the United States in 2022 was 3.1 to 3.35 billion tons of standard coal, and the total electricity consumption in the society was 4.6 to 4.9 trillion kwh. The per capita energy consumption was 9.2. ~ 9.7 tons of standard coal, per capita electricity consumption of 13500 ~ 14300 kwh.
It can be seen that Chinaâ€™s energy consumption in 2022 is about 1.5 to 1.6 times that of the United States. The electricity consumption of the entire society is about 1.7 to 1.8 times that of the United States, and the per capita energy consumption is about 36% to 38% of the United States. About 42% to 44% of the United States.
The average American energy consumption peaked in 1973 (12.2 tons of standard coal), then declined slightly and remained at a relatively stable level for a long time; per capita electricity consumption continued to rise and peaked in 2005 (14604 kWh) and It began to decline; the average annual energy consumption of the Americans was much more advanced than the year when the per capita electricity consumption was saturated, and there was a difference of 32 years between the two.
Given Chinaâ€™s large population and its goal of modernization by 2050, it is predicted that Chinaâ€™s per capita energy consumption and per capita electricity consumption will not reach its peak before 2050, but it will tend to be saturated, and the per capita energy consumption tends to be saturated. Will be significantly earlier than the average electricity consumption per capita tends to be saturated.
After 2030, China's energy and electricity consumption will further slow down. It is estimated that Chinaâ€™s per capita energy consumption will become saturated around 2035, with per capita energy consumption reaching 4.3 tons of standard coal; per capita electricity consumption will be saturated around 2045, and per capita electricity consumption will reach 9360 kWh. The difference in saturation time is about 10 to 15 years. In 2050, China's energy consumption is about 6.8 billion tons of standard coal, the entire society uses about 14.3 trillion kWh, per capita energy consumption is 4.68 tons of standard coal, and per capita electricity consumption is 9813 kWh. It can be seen that although the total energy and electricity consumption in China is higher than in the United States in the future, the per capita level is still significantly lower than that of the United States.
Sources of data: (1) China data from the Electricity Supply and Demand Research Laboratory (ILE4); (2) U.S. data from IEA statistics.
Revelations (1) China faces energy, resource, and environmental bottlenecks, which determine that China cannot follow the U.S. energy consumption model. Historically, Western developed countries, which account for 15% of the world's population, have used 80% of the world's energy to complete industrialization. Today, with increasingly harsh resources and environmental pressures, China is bound to be unable to replicate this â€œoverdraftâ€ energy consumption development model.
According to the current US average energy consumption of 10.2 tons of standard coal, Chinaâ€™s energy demand will be as high as 15 billion tons of standard coal, which is impossible. China can only support China's future industrialization and post-industrialization by transforming its economic development mode, saving priority, diversifying its development, rationally controlling total energy consumption, and gradually establishing a clean and sustainable energy-saving energy system. sustainable development.
(2) China's goal of achieving industrialization and modernization will require huge amounts of energy to support. The consumption model that relies solely on fossil energy cannot sustain it and must vigorously develop clean energy and new energy. In the future energy revolution, electricity will play an increasingly important role. In the next few decades, new energy sources such as wind power and solar energy will be rapidly developed. These energy sources must all be converted into electricity. The central position of electricity in the entire energy supply system will be further highlighted. From the demand side, electrical energy is a clean, convenient, flexible, and efficient secondary energy source. It is imperative that electricity be replaced by electricity, and the status of electricity security in energy security will also be significantly improved.
China and the United States are the worldâ€™s largest developing and developed countries, and they are also the worldâ€™s top two economic powers and energy consumers. Comparing the economic, energy, and power needs of China and the United States has important reference significance for scientifically grasping the relationship between China's economic development, energy consumption, and power demand in the future.