Where will the PV market go in the future? The worldâ€™s fifth-largest module manufacturer, Atos Solar Power (hereinafter referred to as â€œArtisâ€), Xiao Xiaoyu, CEO, said that in the next two years, the global photovoltaic market will still be a small year, and the market will further increase. Factory concentration. Moreover, unlike the situation in which a large number of small and medium-sized component suppliers went back after the financial crisis in 2008, Zhai Xiaoyi stated that most of these companies will be eliminated forever through the current round of big losses.
China is the largest producer of photovoltaic cells and modules in the world, occupying half of the global photovoltaic market. Leading companies include Suntech Power, Jinao, Yingli and Artes.
The semi-annual report shows that China's listed PV companies have almost lost money. Among them, Suntech suffered a loss of 260 million U.S. dollars, LDK suffered a loss of 88 million U.S. dollars, China Electric Power Co., Ltd. lost 17 million U.S. dollars, and Hanwha New Energy lost 11 million U.S. dollars.
"Too much fire in 2010"
According to a recent research report released by the international IT consulting agency IHSiSuppli, the installed capacity of the world's photovoltaic market is expected to increase by 20% year-on-year (compared to the same period of last year) in 2011, a sharp drop from the growth rate of 153% in 2010. At the same time, due to the turbulent market conditions leading to a sharp drop in prices and overcapacity in the solar cell production industry, this year's total industry revenue may only grow by 3.7% year-on-year.
"This year's industry situation, Artus is expected. From the time of September to October of last year, we formed such an opinion internally." Xiaoxiao Yan said, "We have introduced some banks in China that have cooperated with us. It was also said that in the period of 2011-2012, the entire industry will go down."
According to Xiaoxiao Yan, in fact, from September to October last year, the outside world has a lot of industry analysis, including the investment bank Morgan Stanley also said it is not optimistic about the 2011 market. â€œThese reports are always there. They just depend on whether the companyâ€™s management is willing to listen, see, or believe. You are willing to believe in the splendid scenery of flowers, or are you willing to believe that this industry will be a protracted war and need to be quiet. Mood to deal with? This is your choice."
As 2010 is the year of photovoltaics, the entire photovoltaic installation has grown by more than 100%. Not only have the first-tier PV module companies significantly expanded production, many small and medium-sized enterprises have also said that they will achieve a capacity target of 500MW or 1GW this year.
Another person in charge of a large-scale photovoltaic company in China said that when it was too high in 2010, the technology was worse and companies with higher costs could make money. Everyone rushed into the photovoltaic industry.
Qicheng Photovoltaic Corporation's revenue decline data show that 70 solar energy power generation companies listed in the third quarter of 2011, the average gross sales margin reported 23.41%, compared with the year's mid-year report dropped by 0.26%, compared with 22.67% in the third quarter of last year, the year-on-year decline in 23.64% 0.23%.
Lou Xiaolu admitted that there are some unforeseen circumstances this year. Such as the European debt, the outbreak of the US debt crisis, the earthquake in Japan. The main effect of European debt and US debt is that banks are increasing their currency holdings and are preparing to withdraw. Under such circumstances, the financing of PV power plant projects will be more difficult. In Europe and the United States, photovoltaic power plant projects usually have extremely strong financial attributes.
â€œThe current situation of the solar industry is similar to that of the entire Chinese export industry. Each export industry faces great challenges. Customers are overseas, and Europe and the United States have not recovered. So this is a common problem. This is from the global The decline in ocean shipping capacity and shipping costs can be seen.â€ Xiao Xiaoyun said that from the perspective of next year, these fundamentals will not change too fundamentally, so this year and next year will still be a small year.
â€œOur cash in banks is generally between 600 million and 700 million U.S. dollars. There are no convertible bonds that are due and there are no major infrastructure projects that can't be stopped. Therefore, it is easy and the mentality is also good.â€ Xiaotao Yan also disclosed. Artes this year's module shipments will reach 1.2GW to 1.3GW (1GW=1000MW, 1MW=1000KW), which is more than 50% growth over 800MW last year.
"This time, I can't live without it."
According to EnergyTrend's report, as prices continue to fall, but demand still does not improve, most large-scale manufacturers have expanded their access to the sea. In addition to extending payment deadlines, they are currently using funds to help downstream development and thus increase shipments. The market challenges faced by small-scale manufacturers will become even more severe. In addition to their own cost pressures, they will not be able to compete with large-scale manufacturers that have more funds in the downstream buyerâ€™s market. Therefore, short-term operations will mostly rely on keeping cash in hand. To survive this wave of winter in order to reduce inventory.
The above market pressure is reflected in China, the worldâ€™s largest PV module manufacturing country, and it also includes a large number of second and third tier companies.
With the arrival of the integration tide, the industry is focusing on big factories. According to data provided by Artes, although the price of components is continuously declining, its component shipments are rising every quarter. "We had 245MW in the first quarter, 287MW in the second quarter, and 350-360MW in the third quarter. This shows that the market share is shifting to large-scale companies." Xiao Xiaoyu said.
For this phenomenon, Zhai Xiaoyi said that he would not be able to reproduce. "After entering this round of 2011, I am afraid that many companies will never be able to come back. Because the solar energy industry is becoming more and more mature, large-scale enterprises will occupy a greater market share, leaving few places for small businesses, and global trends. All will be."
Yan Xiaoyu frankly stated that it is impossible to maintain profit in the absence of oversupply in the entire industry. "Everything is contradictory, and only if the entire industry has a problem of profitability, will the industry become integrated. Even the time when the fool can make money is not good?"
Since the beginning of this year, the prices of global photovoltaic products have fallen fiercely. They have been hit by European debt and US anti-dumping and anti-subsidy â€œdouble-antiâ€ lawsuits, making nearly 90% of Chinese PV companies that sell overseas are in a much tougher position.