In the fourth quarter, it is expected that the countryâ€™s electricity consumption will continue to maintain a steady growth trend. In the quarter, the electricity consumption of the entire society will increase by about 13%. The entire society will use 4.7 trillion kWh of electricity and increase by about 12% year-on-year. Comprehensive analysis of various factors, the overall power supply and demand in the country this winter and next spring is tight, and some areas continue to be tight. The utilization hours of power generation equipment increased slightly year-on-year, while the utilization hours of thermal power equipment continued to increase, and the increase rate in some areas was greater.
I. Analysis of the electricity supply and demand and economic operation situation in the first three quarters of the country (1) Electricity consumption situation 1. Power demand is generally strong, electricity consumption growth rate stabilizes month by month, and the electricity consumption is generally strong in the first three quarters. The volume was 35.157 billion kWh, an increase of 11.95% year-on-year, with quarterly growth of 12.7%, 11.7%, and 11.5% year-on-year, respectively. The growth rate stabilized at a quarterly high.
In terms of sub-sectors, in the first three quarters, the primary industry used 79.5 billion kWh, an increase of 4.5% year-on-year. The second industry used 2.6235 billion kwh of electricity, an increase of 12.1% year-on-year, with quarterly growth of 12.3%, 11.6%, and 12.5%, respectively. The tertiary industry used 384.4 billion kwh of electricity, an increase of 14.0% year-on-year; the urban and rural households used 428.2 billion kwh of electricity, an increase of 10.6% year-on-year; the tertiary industry and urban and rural residentsâ€™ electricity consumption increased electricity consumption for the entire society. The contribution rates were 12.5% â€‹â€‹and 10.9%, respectively, 3.4 and 1.6 percentage points higher than the same period of last year.
2. In the first three quarters of stable high electricity consumption in the manufacturing industry, the national industrial electricity consumption was 2581.3 billion kWh, an increase of 12.0% over the same period of the previous year; among which, the electricity consumption of light and heavy industries increased by 9.5% and 12.5% â€‹â€‹respectively year-on-year, and the electricity consumption of light industry increased. The rate is consistently lower than that of heavy industry, and the gap widens on a monthly basis. In the first three quarters, the nationâ€™s electricity consumption in the manufacturing sector increased by 12.4% year-on-year. After the Spring Festival, the electricity consumption of the manufacturing industry increased month by month and hit a record high. The average daily electricity consumption of the manufacturing industry has exceeded 7 billion kilowatt-hours for six consecutive months.
3. In the first three quarters of last year, the four key industries saw a steady increase in electricity consumption. The four key industries of chemicals, building materials, ferrous metal smelting, and non-ferrous metal smelting used a total of 1.14 trillion kWh, an increase of 12.4% year-on-year. In terms of sub-sectors, in the first three quarters, the electricity consumption in the chemical industry reached 264 billion kWh, up 10.3% year-on-year. The quarterly growth was 4.1%, 10.8%, and 15.7%, respectively; the growth rate increased quarter by quarter; the electricity consumption of the building materials industry was 217.4 billion kilowatts. At the same time, it increased by 18.5% year-on-year; the ferrous metal smelting industry consumed 402.6 billion kWh, up 12.6% year-on-year; the non-ferrous metal smelting industry used electricity 266.4 billion kWh, up 9.8% year-on-year; building materials, steel, non-ferrous industry electricity consumption It has been stable at historical highs for 6 months, 7 months and 5 months respectively.
4. The power consumption in the western region continued to grow at a rapid rate and the third quarter saw an acceleration in the first three quarters. All provinces achieved positive growth in electricity use. Among them, the western regionâ€™s electricity consumption increased by 17.2%, with quarterly growth rates of 15.9% and 15.8 respectively. %, 19.7%, significantly higher than other regions. In the first three quarters, the growth rate of electricity consumption in the central, eastern, and northeast regions was 11.7%, 10.0%, and 9.3%, respectively, which were lower than the growth rate of electricity consumption in the entire country. Among the 14 provinces where the growth rate of electricity consumption in the society is higher than the national average, 11 are in the western provinces.
(II) Power supply situation 1. The growth rate of installed capacity of thermal power is low, and the pace of construction has slowed down. In the first three quarters of the entire year, the countryâ€™s newly added infrastructure power generation capacity reached 49.62 million kilowatts, a decrease of 2.24 million kilowatts from the same period last year. As of the end of September, the capacity of power generation equipment of 6000 kilowatts and above in China was 97.695 million kilowatts, an increase of 10.2% year-on-year; among them, thermal power increased by 8.8% year-on-year, and continued to be lower than thermal power generation and growth in electricity consumption of the entire society. In the first three quarters, the newly-started thermal power capacity of the country was 12.62 million kilowatts. By the end of September, the scale of thermal power projects under construction was 67.55 million kilowatts, which was a decrease of 13.38 million kilowatts and 17.85 million kilowatts year-on-year respectively. The scale reduction will have a greater impact on future power supply protection.
2. Significant impact of declining hydropower output on power supply In the first three quarters of the year, the hydropower generation capacity of power plants above designated size nationwide was 467.4 billion kWh, which was a year-on-year decline of 0.6%, which was the first year that hydropower generation has experienced negative growth over the same period since the â€œEleventh Five-Year Planâ€; In the third quarter, the year-on-year increase was 1.5% and a decrease of 14.7%, respectively. The hydropower production in the province with a higher proportion of hydropower installed capacity is very serious and has seriously affected the balance between electricity supply and demand. Affected by strong demand and hydropower reduction, monthly thermal power generation has continued to exceed 300 billion kWh since December 2010. From January to September, thermal power generation capacity was 2.8532 trillion kWh, which represented a year-on-year increase of 14.4%, accounting for 82.6% of the total power generation, which was 1.2% higher than the same period of last year.
3. The decrease in the utilization hours of hydropower equipment led to a rapid rise in the utilization hours of thermal power equipment and the demand for thermal equipment was rapidly rising and faster than the growth of installed capacity. As a result, the utilization hours of power generation equipment in the first three quarters reached 3,603 hours, an increase of 78 hours over the same period of the previous year. The use of hydropower was relatively low, and the utilization hours of hydropower equipment was 301 hours lower than the same period of last year, which also enabled the use of thermal power support. The average utilization hours of thermal power equipment in the country continued to rise from 2004-2009, then entered a recovery channel, and had risen to The level for the same period in 2007 reflects the current tight balance between supply and demand.
4. The high price of coal in the market continues to rise, and the supply of coal continues to be tight
In the first three quarters of the overall situation, the countryâ€™s overall electricity demand was generally strong, and the growth rate of electricity consumption maintained a high level. Affected by the number of bases, the growth rate of secondary industry and industrial electricity consumption rebounded, and the tertiary industry and urban and rural residentsâ€™ electricity consumption grew rapidly. The electricity consumption in the manufacturing industry is stable at a high level, and electricity consumption in key industries has remained relatively large. Since the second quarter, the growth rate of hydropower generation has continued to decline. As a result, the thermal power output has continued to exceed 300 billion kWh/month; the high price of thermal coal in the market has continued to rise, and the supply of coal in some areas has been tight; the installed capacity of infrastructure has been smaller than the same period of last year, and the installed capacity has increased. The rate of growth of power consumption is lower than that of electricity generation, which has led to a shortage of power supply in some regions; the utilization hours of power generation equipment have risen year-on-year, and the recovery of thermal power utilization hours has become even more significant. The investment in thermal power and wind power in power investment has seen a negative growth year-on-year; the newly put into operation, new start-up of thermal power and the continuous reduction in the scale of construction under construction will seriously affect the balance of power supply and demand in the future.