After the nuclear accident in Japan, many countries have suspended nuclear energy development plans. Among them, Germany and Switzerland announced that they will completely abandon nuclear energy. The International Energy Agency has proposed a "low-nuclear hypothesis" under which to evaluate the possible development of the future global energy structure.
Reuters said that the draft report was drafted in July this year and will be released to the public in the near future. The report pointed out: "According to the 'low-nuclear hypothesis', global nuclear power generation will drop from 393 billion watts in 2011 to 343 billion watts in 2035."
The report stated that the "low-nuclear hypothesis" is not a prediction but an attempt to introduce people to a pessimistic view of the future development of the nuclear energy industry. By 2035, the proportion of nuclear power generation will be reduced from the current 13% to 7%. This has important implications for energy security, fuel diversity, energy expenditure, and energy-related carbon emissions. Compared to the nuclear accident in Japan, the prospects for nuclear energy development today are full of uncertainties, and their role in meeting the world's energy needs has also become blurred.
It is undeniable that the decline in nuclear power generation will lead to an increase in the proportion of oil and natural gas power generation, oil demand may increase by 0.2%, and natural gas increase by 0.4%.
In the "new policy outlook" put forward in the World Energy Outlook 2010, the International Energy Agency predicts that world power demand will increase from 17,200 megawatt-hours in 2009 to 31,500 megawatt-hours in 2035, an average annual increase of 3.1%. The total investment in nuclear energy related fields from 2011 to 2035 will reach 16.8 trillion U.S. dollars (approximately US$ 6.35).
Sven Teske, Senior Energy Specialist at Greenpeace International, said: "The International Energy Agency has made corresponding adjustments to the World Energy Outlook over the past decade, and the proportion of renewable energy is continuously increasing."
In addition, the report also pointed out that the current skyrocketing oil prices have raised concerns about the recent economic outlook. Oil prices will reach US$114 per barrel in 2015 and US$212 in 2035, while last year’s forecast prices are US$104 and US$204 respectively. .
In the long run, natural gas prices will decline. The International Energy Agency stated: "As a result of advances in commercial exploration technologies for non-traditional natural gas resources, we have adjusted the forecast for natural gas price trends to a gradual decline."
"The recent discovery of large unconventional natural gas reserves has changed the prediction of natural gas prices," said Emmanuel Fages, a coal industry analyst at Societe Generale. "How the market can price these natural gas is tricky." Problem, because the long-term contract price framework will cause prices to remain high."
At present, most natural gas prices are long-term contract prices linked to oil, so even if the supply increases, oil prices will still hinder the decline in natural gas prices. In this case, coal is a cheaper energy, and its global energy contribution ratio may exceed people's previous predictions.
In addition, this report predicts that the prices of carbon indicators under the EU system will reach US$31, US$41, and US$46 in 2020, 2030, and 2035, respectively. From 2009 to 2035, CO2 emissions in the energy sector will increase by 20%, due to the large amount of people using low-carbon energy and improving energy efficiency in the future, which is far lower than the increase in energy demand.
According to the International Energy Agency's "World Energy Outlook 2011" report, Japan's Fukushima nuclear accident will lead to a 15% decline in global nuclear power generation in 2035, while energy demand in the same period rose by 3.1%.